troubledtimes

Jammu and Kashmir, the so-called paradise on earth,has been at the crossroads of geography for centuries bearing the cross of thecurse of its geo-strategic importance bestowed by that very primacy of thegeography.  From ancient times, the Statehas been at the mercy of countless marauders, invaders and vested interest forits commercial and strategic importance and shall remain in this league for countlessmore centuries to come.  The obtaininggeo-strategic and international affairs regime and the one in the near futuredoes not portend any healing of the State’s wounds inflicted  by that geographical primacy because thatprimacy is going to remain centre stage in the interests of the affected powersand the distant ones that dictate global governance.  Though thegeographical setting of a country does not determine its course of history allby itself, it is fundamental to all that happens within the four corners of itsboundary.  Geographical setting imposesdistinctive constraints and provides distinctive opportunities that haveprofound implications for its politics, its course of history, its people andthe policy and strategy they pursue.  Geographydefines the players, which are the organised nation states, frequently definesthe stakes for which the players contend, and always defines the terms in whichthey measure their security relative to others. This phenomenon of the continued primacy of geography i.e. the relativegeographical superiority of the state of Jammu and Kashmir has been a curse to its people who haveborne the onslaught of innumerable invaders and vested political interest fromthe times immemorial to the present. This geographical primacy of the state has been a curse to its fortunesand has helped retain it in the vortex of India Pakistan conflict.  In the recent history, the key reason thathas kept India Pakistan peace initiative from fructifying into a meaningful end-stateis the vexing problem of Kashmir.   

The geographical primacy of the statestems from its unique location in the Asian mainland that bestows to its norththe great ranges that provide a link between the Pamirs and the Hindu Kush onthe west and the Himalayas on the east – thegreat Gordian knot that has been witness to most of the human history in theOrient.  Ladakh, in the North East of theState includes a corner of the Tibetan high plateau, which extends eastward forthousands of miles into occupied Chinese territory.  Across the southeastern corner of the stateruns the Pir Panjal range that separates the valleyof Kashmir from Jammu region. Cutting right across the state in a great arc from east to west flowsthe Indus Riveron its way from its sources in Western Tibet to its mouth in Sind in Pakistan.  Together with its two other famous tributaries,Jhelum and the Chenab, the Sind system of rivers form the main lifeline forboth Pakistanand the erstwhile Indian Punjab.  Thevalleys of these major Kashmiri Rivers, so vital to the economy of Pakistan,also provided until very recently the main lines of communication between thestate and the outside world.  The valleyof the upper Indus gives access to the hillstates of the Gilgit region.  GreatNorthern Glaciers including the Siachen and the Ladakh and Karakoram ranges arethe perennial water reservoir for the entire South Asian region.  The State has also been host to ancient traderoutes to and from Central Asia, Xingjian and the Tibet.  The Northern ranges have from ancient timesacted as barriers to countless invaders from Europe, Central Asia and the Mongolia fromAlexander the Great to Chengis Khan to Nadir Shah and the Afghans.  As Sir Owen Dixon stated in his report to theUnited Nations Security Council in September 1950, the basic cause of the Kashmir problem “presumably formed part of the history ofthe sub-continent” which was a result of its geographical primacy over thecenturies.  It was this process ofhistory deeply steeped in the geographical primacy that resulted, as LordBirdwood once remarked, in “thedelimitation of a line on the map of Central Asia which on politicalconsiderations enclosed a completely artificial area, a geographicalmonstrosity which then assumed the name of the land of the Jhelum Valley,Kashmir”. At the heart of the Kashmir problem laythe nature of the British strategic interest in the region and the manner inwhich the British hoped that those strategic interests would be maintainedfollowing the Transfer of Power in 1947. What the British actually wanted was control over the Gilgit Agency,that key observation post into the affairs of Central Asiaand defensive outpost against any hostile incursions from that direction.  To achieve this strategic design that the primacyof geography has bestowed on the State, the British Indian Government allegedlyused late Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah in 1931 in stirring up the communal troublein Srinagar to destabilise the State of Jammu and Kashmir in order to force theMaharaja Hari Singh to give in to British pressure and hand over the Gilgitregion on a long lease.  The geographicalprimacy of the state further forced Lord Mountbatten to ensure that Gilgitsomehow did no fall in the state of Jammu and Kashmirat the time of partition and remained part of the newly formed Pakistan thatthe “Anglo-Americans” thought would form a base for them in this key CentralAsian outpost after the Transfer of Power. This fear dominated the British strategic thought for over a centuryfrom creation of the State of Jammu and Kashmirin 1846 to the partition of Indiain 1947.  The geo-strategic importance ofJammu and Kashmirin 1947 further resulted in the partition into two parts of the NorthernFrontier and the two routes across it distributed between the successors to theBritish Raj.  Indiaacquired the Ladakh route, which soon became inextricably bound up with theWestern sector of the Sino-Indian boundary dispute, where Indian claims to theAksai Chin derive to a considerable extent from British interest in thispotential approach to Chinese Central Asia.  The Gilgit route went to Pakistan which subsequently evolved into Karakoram Highwaywhich was formally opened in 1978 to provide a direct link between China and the Arabian Sea.  This was an event of immense strategicconcern to Indiaand partly laid the foundations for the conflict between the two nations.  Indian control over these frontier edges ofCentral Asia, that “pivot” or “heartland” of Asiawas of the greatest strategic importance, which she could not manage from LordMountbatten.

Kashmir is the gateway to the Central Asia that is home to about 90 percent of world’smineral wealth.  It is also at theentrance to the warm waters of Arabian Seathat has been one of the main strategic goals of modern Chinese state.  Above all the region shall see the ultimatefuture civilisational fault lines being played on its soil.  Whereas Taliban acted as the road warriorsfor Pakistani rulers’ designs into Central Asia prior to 9/11; the daunting set of challenges forIndia now lie in Central Asia, ranging from the ideological to the strategic inthe name of a newly formed secretive and most radical complex Islamist movementcalled Hizb ut-Tahrir al Islami (the Islamic Party of Liberation, orHuT) and the Afghanistan-Central Asian complex. HuT is a pan-Islamic movement that aims to seize power in Central Asiaas the first step in an elaborate plan aimed at creating a unified worldwideIslamic state that has Kashmir as one of itsfirst targets.  Good relations andstrategic tie-ups with the Central Asian states, as has been manifestly beenseen through various visits of Indian authorities to these countries in therecent past are an important prong in India’s strategy to global power statusbesides keeping Pakistani mischief under check.

The emerging security environment  and escalation dynamics in the South Asianregion has Kashmir as one of the core issues from where stem a host of problemsand the resolution of which will pave way for lasting peace and prosperity inthe area.  It has been a long cherisheddream of the United Statesto establish a foothold in the Central Asia in order to exploit the rich wealthof this region and pose a check to both Chinaand Russia, which she hasachieved with her invasion of Afghanistan.  Kashmir is the essential pivot to thatstrategy and the United Stateshas engaged in numerous initiatives ranging from various Kashmir based studiesin their various Think Tanks notably the United States Institute of Peace in Washington and bycommissioning studies of far reaching consequences.  Besides, the US is also engaging various politicalgroups in the state through their diplomatic missions and parliamentary delegationsboth overtly and covertly in order to retain a finger on the changing politicalpulse here.  All this is preciselytowards that ultimate aim of retaining a foothold in the future stakes in theState and dictate terms to both Indiaand Pakistanwhen the need arises.  This is thecontinued geographical primacy of the State. The State of Jammu and Kashmir has a potential of generating over twentythousand megawatts of hydro-electric power, a host of forest and mineralwealth, cash crops and an agrarian economy that would be the envy of any modernprogressive nation state should it be exploited with diligence and vision.  This economic wealth is in addition to its geographical primacy, which if extrapolated together shall transform the State into the “paradise on earth”.  

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